President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are set to speak Saturday about the fate of a proposed Iran deal, a conversation that could determine whether the two allies pursue diplomacy or return to military action.

Trump has reportedly assessed the odds of reaching a successful agreement with Iran at 50/50. He’s expected to make a final decision by Sunday on whether to accept the proposal or resume strikes.

A tense alliance under pressure

The Saturday call follows a notably strained conversation between the two leaders on May 20. During that exchange, Trump laid out a plan involving a “letter of intent” that would kick off 30 days of negotiations focused on Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

Netanyahu pushed back hard against the proposal, viewing it as an unfavorable interim arrangement. By May 23, Netanyahu had convened an urgent meeting with his top security officials to address what he described as terms that were “very bad” for Israel.

The US and Israel launched joint military operations against Iran beginning February 28, 2026. That campaign set the stage for the current diplomatic push, which means both sides have already demonstrated willingness to use force.

What crypto markets are telling us

Bitcoin rallied 2.3% in response to the initial communications around the Iran peace proposal.

The correlation between Middle East tensions and crypto markets runs through oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Iran has historically leveraged crypto platforms to navigate international sanctions, adding a layer of complexity to how these geopolitical dynamics intersect with digital asset markets.

What investors should watch

Saturday’s call between Trump and Netanyahu is the immediate catalyst. The binary outcome, deal or no deal, creates a setup where crypto markets could swing sharply in either direction once a decision crystallizes by Sunday.

The 30-day negotiation window, if it materializes, would create a month of headline-driven volatility. Mediators from countries like Qatar and Pakistan are now stepping in to facilitate negotiations, as both nations navigate contentious issues like uranium enrichment and sanctions relief.