Trump optimistic on Iran deal, cites Hormuz blockade’s effectiveness

President Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal with Iran, citing the effectiveness of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 36.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago.

The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market moved 4.2 percentage points higher following Trump’s remarks. The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement for May 31 holds steady at 82% YES, suggesting traders see a high probability of the blockade ending if a deal materializes.

The term structure of the blockade markets shows a large gap between April 19 and May 31. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, while May 31 sits at 82%. That 64.5-point spread implies traders expect a resolution catalyst sometime after April 19.

Daily USDC volume in the uranium enrichment market is $23,824, with $599 required to move the price 5 percentage points. That’s moderate liquidity with room for sharp moves. The largest recent price change was a 3-point spike at 5:48 PM, coinciding with the wave of Trump’s comments.

Trump’s optimism matters because it points toward possible de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran within a tight window. YES shares at 36.2¢ pay $1 if Iran agrees to suspend enrichment by April 30, a 2.56x return. That bet requires significant diplomatic progress in the next 14 days.

Watch for announcements from intermediaries like Pakistan or statements from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. Either could confirm or undercut the current pricing.

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