Trump proposes ceasefire talks to end Iran war, Iran rejects 20-year nuclear plan

Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0% YES, up from 35% a day ago.

The uranium enrichment agreement market ticked up after Trump’s proposal. Iran rejected the 20-year plan, but odds have climbed from just 10% a week ago, suggesting traders see room for a last-minute compromise even with talks deadlocked. Daily actual USDC volume is $23,824, and only $599 is needed to shift odds by five points, which means the market is thin and prone to sharp moves.

The US-Iran ceasefire market is more speculative. Odds for a ceasefire extension past April 21 are at 8% YES, unchanged from yesterday. The term structure tells a different story: odds for a ceasefire by June 30 are at 66%. Traders clearly discount near-term progress but price in a reasonable chance of a longer-term diplomatic outcome.

Iran’s rejection keeps both sides in entrenched positions, but it doesn’t close off negotiation. For traders, buying YES at 41.0¢ offers a 2.56x return if a deal materializes by April 30. Any shift in Iran’s stance or a mediating breakthrough could move these odds fast given the low liquidity.

Watch for statements from Trump’s camp, Iranian leadership, and intermediaries like Pakistan. A sudden announcement of resumed talks or a softening of Iran’s position would likely reprice both markets quickly.

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