Trump reveals closed-door US-Iran talks, ceasefire expected by April 15

Trump’s announcement of closed-door US-Iran talks has pushed “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” to 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

## Market reaction

Trump’s statement moved all related ceasefire markets to near certainty. The April 15 market sat at 12% before jumping to 100% YES last night. The April 30 and June 30 markets also reached 100% YES, as traders priced in a formal cessation of hostilities.

The largest move came at 10:34 PM: a 24-point spike in the April 15 market, from 67% to 90%. Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $5,188,952. Order book depth shows institutional-grade support, meaning it would take significant capital to push these odds back down.

## Why it matters

Trump’s social media announcement is a tier-3 source, but its market impact was immediate and total. The move from 12% to 100% in 24 hours reflects collective trader conviction that closed-door diplomacy will produce a formal ceasefire. At 100% YES, there are no buying opportunities left, though any future volatility could offer profitable exits for early holders.

## What to watch

Look for confirmations from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or direct statements from US or Iranian officials. Either would lock in the current odds or reintroduce price movement.

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