Trump stated on April 16 that “oil prices are coming down,” consistent with recent market data. The WTI Crude Oil at $160 in April contract sits at 0% YES after a 25% expected move.

Market reaction

Brent crude closed at $96.83 on April 15, down $3.36 from the previous day, and WTI futures also fell. This coincides with discussions about extending the US-Iran ceasefire, which would reduce tension around oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters

The WTI $160 April contract has no liquidity, with combined 24-hour volume at $0. Reaching that level would require something like Iran closing the Strait again or OPEC+ announcing production cuts. Current odds reflect the market’s view that neither is happening before month’s end.

What to watch

Trump’s comments and the ongoing ceasefire negotiations point toward de-escalation, which would suppress oil price spikes. Traders should monitor any shifts in rhetoric from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister or Iran’s Supreme Leader. A YES share at 0¢ would pay $1, a bet on a major geopolitical reversal.

If a ceasefire extension is confirmed, expect further bearish pressure on WTI prices. Watch for OPEC+ decisions and EIA data releases.

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