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Trump’s decision to side with Israel over Iran, driven by Israeli intelligence, casts doubt on a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15. The market sits at
With US-Israeli cooperation in military operations against Iran, the ceasefire by April 15 looks increasingly unlikely to hold. The odds are pegged at 100%, but the current US-Israeli military alignment suggests traders are betting on diplomatic intervention arriving at the last minute. The permanent peace deal by April 22 remains unclear as military engagement continues.
Neither the ceasefire nor the permanent peace deal markets show face value trading volume, pointing to a potential re-evaluation of positions. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire odds face similar strain from continued Israeli operations in Lebanon. The absence of trading points to uncertainty over how these conflicts resolve in the near term.
Trump’s reliance on Israeli intelligence signals a reluctance to de-escalate, which is the main factor behind fading ceasefire optimism. At 22¢, a YES share on the permanent peace deal implies a high reward if the deal materializes, but traders must weigh this against the likelihood of continued military action. Without concrete diplomatic developments, these markets are unlikely to shift significantly.
Watch for Trump’s diplomatic moves, particularly any activity from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar that could signal a turn toward de-escalation. Secretary of State Rubio’s statements or any changes in CENTCOM’s operational language could also move these markets.
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