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Trump is considering seizing Iranian oil if no deal is reached soon, threatening to end negotiations. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The threat of military escalation has hit the April 7 ceasefire odds hard, with only 4 days until the deadline. The April 15 market sits at 6% YES, as Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum looms. Traders are skeptical about near-term diplomacy due to Trump’s hawkish rhetoric.
Longer-term odds show slightly more optimism. The April 30 market is at 18% YES, dropping from 24% yesterday. The May 31 market saw a similar decline to 36% YES. The drop across term structures indicates traders expect continued tension, with the largest jump in expectations between April 30 and May 31 suggesting mid-May as a potential pivot point.
The combined 24-hour face value volume across these markets is $3.76M, with actual USDC traded at $430K. The order book depth for April 7 is notably shallow, requiring just $12,367 to move the price by 5 percentage points. This thin market condition means a single large trade could cause significant swings.
For traders, Trump’s aggressive tone and the Pentagon’s readiness to escalate are bearish signals for a near-term ceasefire. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire offers a 100x payout, but you’d need to believe in a diplomatic miracle within 4 days. The likelihood of new strikes or oil seizures makes this a high-risk, low-probability bet.
Watch for any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar, as well as statements from CENTCOM or the Sultan of Oman. These could shift the odds if they indicate a path back to the negotiation table.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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