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Trump urged Netanyahu to ease strikes in Lebanon to support US-Iran negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-15 market sits at
The April 15 market has reached certainty after Trump’s push for de-escalation in Lebanon. The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES, up from 34% and 54% respectively a week ago.
All active sub-markets are priced at 100% YES, even as Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon continue. Traders appear to treat Trump’s intervention as the deciding factor for broader US-Iran de-escalation. The term structure shows no premium for later dates, which points to consensus on an imminent resolution.
Real dollar volume behind these markets is $3.23M in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, suggesting firm conviction rather than speculative positioning. Order book depth shows resilience against price manipulation. The largest price shift happened a week ago, when the April 15 contract jumped from 18% to certainty on cumulative orders following Trump’s initial diplomatic overtures.
Trump’s call to Netanyahu is a strategic pivot: by urging reduced strikes, he is tying Israel’s military posture to US diplomatic objectives with Iran. For traders, buying YES at 100¢ now locks in a payout without risk given current market consensus. The only scenario that disrupts this is a sudden resurgence of hostilities, which the market currently prices as negligible.
Watch for Netanyahu’s response and any shifts in CENTCOM’s operational language. Details about planned weekend negotiations could confirm the trajectory. A formal meeting announcement would remove remaining uncertainty.
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