Trump says the US blockade remains in place and bombing could resume if no deal is reached. Odds of a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 are at 22% YES, up from 8% a day ago.

Trump’s remarks drove a 10-point rise in ceasefire breach odds, signaling trader concern over imminent escalation. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade by May 31 dropped to 78% YES from 90% yesterday. Traders are pricing in a longer timeline for resolution.

The ceasefire odds spike came on $3,485 in USDC volume, with only $498 needed to move the market 5 points. The largest single move was a 3-point spike at 11:12 AM. Permanent peace deal odds fell to 20% YES from 40% a day ago.

Trump’s threat of resumed bombings without a deal puts direct pressure on Iran but narrows the diplomatic window. Traders betting on a peace deal by April 22 would need a rapid shift in negotiations for the bet to pay off: a YES share at 20¢ pays $1, a 5x return, assuming a breakthrough in four days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or a surprise diplomatic engagement. Trump’s next social media post could also move these markets, particularly if it includes a specific timeline or negotiation details.

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