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Trump’s comments on Iran mix hope for a deal with a threat of attack if negotiations collapse. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Sub-markets for different dates show doubt about a quick resolution. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8% in 24 hours. Longer-term markets show more optimism, with April 30 at 18% and May 31 at 36% YES. The biggest increase is between April 30 and May 31, indicating traders expect a possible catalyst then.
USDC traded volume shows market activity. April 7’s market is thin, needing $12,367 to move 5 points. In contrast, April 30’s market depth is $19,938, showing institutional interest. A 2-point rise in the April 30 market today suggests traders are hedging on a diplomatic breakthrough.
Trump’s statement doesn’t change probabilities significantly. His mix of optimism and threats keeps escalation high. A YES share at 1¢ for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 100x return, but traders doubt a sudden diplomatic shift in four days.
Watch for intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar, and statements from CENTCOM or Khamenei’s successor. Any real diplomatic progress or talks could change the odds quickly.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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