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Trump called Iran “animals” and claimed they are losing, dropping the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
With only 4 days left, the April 7 market shows little hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. Trump’s aggressive comments and threats of increased strikes on Iranian infrastructure have traders doubting a quick resolution. The April 15 odds are at 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday, indicating limited optimism for progress after Trump’s remarks.
Later markets show a sustained standoff expectation. The April 30 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 24% a day ago. The May 31 market stands at 36.5% YES, suggesting some hope for eventual talks, though confidence is decreasing.
Ceasefire markets have $431,402 in USDC trading volume over the past 24 hours, with April 30 seeing the most liquidity. It takes $19,925 to shift odds by 5 points there, showing a strong market. However, the largest recent change was a 2-point increase, highlighting trader skepticism.
Trump’s statements alone aren’t moving the odds significantly. A YES share for April 7 pays $1 if successful, but traders are wary of a quick de-escalation given the current rhetoric. A ceasefire is more likely from mediation or a major change in military dynamics.
Watch for developments beyond Trump’s comments: mediation by Oman or Qatar, scheduled talks, or a change in stance from figures like Rubio or Hegseth could impact the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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