Trump’s statement boosts odds of US-Iran peace deal by June 2026

Trump’s statement that the war in Iran is “very close to over” has moved prediction markets. The probability of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is 7.5% YES, down on de-escalation sentiment.

The odds of the US officially declaring war by April 30, 2026, are at 0.8% YES. With 15 days left, traders are skeptical of a formal war declaration in the short term. The spread from April 30 to December 31, 2026, shows a 7% increase, meaning traders see a slightly higher chance of a declaration later in the year if tensions don’t decrease further.

The peace deal market is more reactive. A permanent peace agreement by April 22, 2026, is at 25.5% YES, up from earlier levels after Trump’s statement. The term structure shows growing optimism: odds for a deal by June 30, 2026, reach 67.5% YES. The largest movement occurs between April 30 and May 31, with an 18-point jump, which signals traders expect a key development in May.

Volume tells the story. $447,321 in USDC has traded on the peace deal markets, compared to $360 on the war declaration market. The peace deal market requires $15,398 to move 5pts, showing serious liquidity compared to the thinner war declaration market, where $1,939 moves the same amount.

Trump’s statement is clearly moving peace deal odds more than war escalation odds. A YES share on the April 22 peace deal at 26¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 3.85x return. For that to pay off, watch for resumed negotiations or a concrete de-escalation step.

The next catalysts are Trump’s follow-up comments, particularly any details on new talks or intermediary roles. A formal announcement of negotiations or third-party mediation could push peace deal odds higher.

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