Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade is raising tensions. Odds for lifting the blockade by May 31 sit at 80% YES, down from 81% yesterday.
The April 17 market shows just 15% YES with two days left. The largest move was a 24-point spike, likely driven by fleeting speculation. The April 19 market is at 26.5% YES. The gap between April 19 and May 31 pricing implies traders expect some catalyst in that window, but there’s no clear basis for when.
Total face value across these markets is $765,779, but actual USDC in play is $64,531. The May 31 market, priced at 80¢, is relatively deep: $86 moves the price 5 points. By contrast, the April 17 sub-market’s largest spike reflects a $298 cost for similar movement, which points to thinner liquidity and higher volatility on the near-term contracts.
The blockade signals intent rather than dialogue. A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. That bet only makes sense if you expect a dramatic diplomatic reversal within two days.
Watch for Trump’s Pentagon briefings or any shift in Iranian state media. A surprise diplomatic opening or a military escalation could move these odds fast.
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