Trump’s tariffs may return to previous levels by July, says Treasury Secretary

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods could return to previous levels by July. With higher tariffs on the horizon, the market for Trump visiting China by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES.

The April 30 market is practically dormant at 1.2% YES, with traders clearly skeptical about a near-term visit. The May 31 market tells a different story at 80.5% YES, and June 30 is at 84.5% YES. Traders expect a visit eventually, just not soon.

The May 31 market surged 8.5 points in the past day, likely tied to trader expectations around the April 15 public comment deadline on Section 301 investigations. Daily volume on the May 31 contract is $49,849 in USDC, compared to $2,252 for April 30. It takes $11,233 to move the May 31 odds by five percentage points, which points to real liquidity behind that contract.

Higher tariffs returning by July would extend the U.S.-China conflict and make a short-term diplomatic breakthrough less likely. A YES share for Trump’s visit by April 30 trades at just over a penny, offering a 83x return. But that bet only pays off if a major diplomatic pivot happens within 15 days.

Watch for the Court of International Trade’s April 10 hearing, along with any statements from China’s Foreign Ministry and the White House. These are the most likely catalysts for movement in these contracts.

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