Trump’s new tax plan eliminates taxes on overtime pay, aiming to incentivize American workers. The Hormuz blockade continues to pressure Iran, with signs of potential negotiations. The market for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 sits at 82.5% YES.
Market reaction
The April 19 market has climbed to 9.5% YES with three days left. The April 17 market remains low at 4.5% YES, which points to skepticism about an imminent resolution.
The April market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief is at 36.5% YES. Traders appear to be pricing in some probability of negotiations leading to concessions.
Why it matters
The Hormuz markets are seeing heavy activity. The April 17 sub-market has the highest actual USDC traded at $26,297/day. Order book depth suggests it would take $1,711 to move the odds 5 points, a relatively stable market.
What to watch
Without concrete diplomatic developments, a quick resolution looks unlikely. For traders, the key question is timing: a YES share at 9.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.17x return that requires belief in imminent negotiations.
Watch for Trump’s communications or official statements from the U.S. Navy or Iranian Foreign Ministry. These would be the first signals of any shift in the blockade’s status.
