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Trump’s threat of escalation if no Iran deal by Monday drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% YES for April 7, down from 12% last week.
The possibility of increased military action has nearly erased chances for a ceasefire by April 7. The April 15 market fares slightly better at 6% YES, indicating doubts about diplomacy succeeding before the current ceasefire ends. Trump’s statements suggest more conflict ahead.
The gap between April 7 and April 15 markets shows little hope for a breakthrough. A modest 5-point rise over eight days suggests traders see only a slight chance of progress after the weekend. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point increase, hinting at a potential significant event in late April or early May.
With volume at $22,948 in the past 24 hours, the April 7 market shows weak support for a ceasefire. Just $12,367 can shift the odds 5 points, making it vulnerable to large trades. In contrast, the April 30 market is stronger with $196,968 in daily volume, showing more trader interest.
Trump’s ultimatum underscores the high stakes. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, offering a huge return if talks resume unexpectedly. However, with no negotiations planned and Trump’s aggressive stance, this is more a gamble than a strategy. The market remains pessimistic about a quick resolution without a major diplomatic shift.
Watch for updates from CENTCOM or Secretary of State Rubio. Any diplomatic moves or involvement by Oman or Qatar could change the odds. Until then, traders are likely to expect further tensions.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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