Two-thirds of Israelis dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s leadership, survey shows

A new survey shows two-thirds of Israelis are dissatisfied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. On Polymarket, the odds of him being replaced by June 30 sit at 5.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday.

Market reaction

In the Netanyahu’s Departure market, the June 30 contract dropped slightly, but the 0.2% April 30 contract is effectively unchanged. Traders aren’t pricing in imminent changes. The term structure shows a 5-point jump between April 30 and June 30, which suggests traders expect potential catalysts after April.

The next Prime Minister of Israel market reflects related pressure. Netanyahu’s credibility on security has weakened after a ceasefire with Iran perceived as a loss. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 2026, and his Likud party is polling at 28 seats against an opposition bloc commanding 56 seats. Those numbers point to serious coalition problems if the election were held today.

Why it matters

The 28-vs-56 seat gap is the core number here. If Likud can’t close that deficit, Netanyahu faces either losing a general election or being pushed out by coalition partners before one happens. The dissatisfaction survey adds to a pattern of weakening domestic support, but the market is pricing this as a slow-moving story rather than an acute crisis.

What to watch

Liquidity on the June 30 contract is thin. The market trades $1,423/day in USDC, and it costs $9,495 to move the price 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu steps down by June 30, an 18x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe something forces his exit in the next few months.

Watch for coalition partners’ statements or party-level shifts in response to the survey. Lost support from key figures or parties within the governing coalition is the most likely near-term catalyst.

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