Ukraine’s drone strikes into Russian territory have surpassed expectations with deep incursions and significant damage. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 0.2% YES.

Market reaction

The April 30 resolution market here is virtually dead with just 2 days left. It briefly spiked to 50% before collapsing back. The May 31 market trades at 3.6% YES, still low given recent escalations.

Why it matters

The April 30 market saw a 50-point spike at 11:40 AM that quickly deflated as traders rejected the possibility of a breakthrough. The May 31 contract shows only a 3-point difference over the next 31 days, which means traders see continued hostilities, not rapid diplomatic progress.

Daily volume on the April 30 market is $1,473 in actual USDC, with $865 enough to move it 5 points. This thin order book means even small trades cause large swings. The May 31 market is thicker, requiring $15,857 to move 5 points, which points to more conviction from traders on the longer timeline.

What to watch

The latest drone activity complicates the peace outlook, though the source tier is low, warranting caution. A YES share for May 31 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs, offering a 27.8x return. The bet depends on believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 33 days.

Watch for Zelenskyy’s response to Russia’s military actions and any statements from the upcoming Turkey talks. A shift in rhetoric or new diplomatic overtures could move these odds.

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