Ukraine targets Russia’s Tuapse refinery with drones for second time in a week

Ukraine hit Russia’s Tuapse refinery with drones for the second time in a week, part of a broader campaign targeting rail and oil sites. On Polymarket, odds for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing by April 30 sit at 11.5% YES, while WTI Crude price predictions for April 2026 show traders still positioning around supply disruption scenarios.

Market reaction

The strikes have not moved odds on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure by April 30, which holds at 11.5% YES. The WTI Crude Oil price predictions for April 2026 market shows ? YES, with traders pricing in the possibility that sustained attacks on Russian refining capacity could push prices higher. The $0 face value in crude oil predictions for June indicates traders haven’t committed to directional bets there yet. The largest price move on the Bab el-Mandeb contract was a 1-point spike at 2:56 AM, suggesting only mild volatility.

Why it matters

The Tuapse refinery is a major processing hub for Russian crude exports. Repeated strikes on energy infrastructure directly threaten revenue streams that fund Russia’s war effort. If Ukraine sustains this campaign against refineries and rail logistics, Russian crude supply could tighten enough to register in global pricing. The current Polymarket odds suggest traders view this as a real but not yet dominant factor in oil supply calculations.

What to watch

Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister on output changes, as these would directly affect supply expectations. EIA data releases and any OPEC+ meeting announcements could also shift trader positioning on the WTI April 2026 contracts. Further Ukrainian strikes on refining or export infrastructure would be the most direct catalyst for movement in these markets.

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