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The UN Security Council rejected a resolution to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military confirmed the closure will continue indefinitely. Odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.9% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 22% last week.
Traders are betting against a quick resolution. The April 7 market shows a sharp decline, mirroring increased tensions. The April 15 market is at 8.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago. The April 30 market sits at 24.5% YES, down from 40%.
The likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April has risen, reflecting the escalating military situation. The resolution’s rejection and Iran’s stance suggest an increased chance of military action, prompting traders to reassess US involvement.
The ceasefire market sees $661,902 in USDC traded daily. It takes $26,062 to shift the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 5:19 PM, showing trader caution.
The rejection highlights the current deadlock. With no diplomatic progress, traders expect ongoing tension. At 2¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, a 50x return — a gamble on unlikely rapid de-escalation.
Watch for changes in diplomatic language or unexpected mediation efforts. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio and CENTCOM could significantly sway market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.9% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 24.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 46.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 59.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 71.5% YES
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