UNICEF: Israeli fire kills two water truck drivers in Gaza

Two water truck drivers were killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, according to UNICEF. The market for Netanyahu’s potential exit by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 7% a week ago.

Market reaction

The Netanyahu exit by April 30 market is nearly flat at 0.8% YES. Traders see almost no chance of a political change in the next two weeks. The June 30 market carries slightly higher uncertainty but remains low at 5.5% YES.

Why it matters

Order book depth shows it would take $7,272 to move the June odds by 5 percentage points. Daily USDC volume is just $1,078, meaning a single large trade could move the price more than any shift in collective sentiment.

The killing of the humanitarian workers has not moved the odds. Traders appear to be pricing in the durability of Netanyahu’s coalition over any new source of political pressure. A YES share in the June 30 market at 5.5¢ pays $1 if Netanyahu steps down, a 18.2x return. That bet requires believing internal or external pressures will break his government within 75 days.

What to watch

Any statements from the Knesset or coalition partners signaling weakened support for Netanyahu. International reactions from key allies that could feed back into domestic politics.

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