US achieves military objectives in Iran, ceasefire by April 15 confirmed

The US has achieved its military objectives in Iran, including dismantling Iran’s military capabilities. A ceasefire by April 15 is now at 100% YES, up from 18% just a week ago.

All ceasefire sub-markets have moved to certainty. The April 15 market resolves in 6 days and matches recent ceasefire announcements from the White House. The April 30 and May 31 markets have also reached 100% YES. A few weeks ago, escalation seemed imminent.

The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market remains at 100% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. This suggests traders see resumed hostilities as a real possibility even with a ceasefire in place. Volume on this market is $93.97M in actual USDC.

The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market ticked up to 11.5% YES from 8% yesterday. The military defeat and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are driving speculation about regime instability. At 12¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime collapses by June 30, a 8.3x return. That bet requires high confidence in further destabilization or leadership voids.

Watch for Trump’s next moves or shifts in Pentagon rhetoric on US military posture. The Sultan of Oman or Qatar’s intermediaries could also provide early signals of diplomatic developments.

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