US airstrikes damage Kharg Island, impact Iran’s oil export capacity

Satellite images reveal damage on Kharg Island following U.S. airstrikes, hitting Iran’s oil export capacity. The U.S. invasion of Iran market currently sits at 13% YES for an invasion before the end of 2026.

The U.S. invasion market hasn’t seen substantial trading volume, with a combined face value of $0. The airstrikes on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil shipments, have raised the risk of further military escalation. If the strikes are perceived as precursors to broader military engagement, odds could climb. The invasion probability remains low at 13%, with 263 days left until the end of 2026.

The market on countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30 is at 3.6% YES, up from 3% a week ago. Daily trading volume is $261 in USDC. It would take just $427 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning the order book is thin and vulnerable to sharp moves on new information.

Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude exports, making the strikes directly relevant to global oil supply. The U.S. strikes have so far targeted military assets rather than industrial infrastructure, suggesting a strategy aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities without collapsing its economy entirely.

Traders should watch for any shift in U.S. military strategy or statements from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth or U.S. Central Command. New coalition statements or military actions by other countries could also move market odds quickly.

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