US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan

A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, has been confirmed. The odds for a ceasefire by April 15 now sit at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The market moved after Iran committed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and avoid escalating US strikes. The April 30 market also reflects a 100.0% YES probability, up from 26% in the last day. The ceasefire is a short-term truce, not a comprehensive peace deal, which explains the surge in odds across all sub-markets, including May 31 and June 30.

The largest move in the April 15 market was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, from 67% to 90%, indicating a swift trader reaction to the ceasefire announcement. Face value of trades over the last 24 hours hit $16,327,800, though only $5,188,952 in actual USDC was exchanged. The order book is deep, requiring $50K to move the market 5 points, which points to strong institutional participation.

The market’s full pricing at 100% YES means traders treat this as a definitive short-term resolution. The ceasefire is temporary, though, and its two-week window leaves long-term questions open. At 100¢, a YES share offers no further upside, but holding it ensures no loss if conditions hold.

Traders should watch for new rhetoric from Trump or moves by Israel, which remains outside the ceasefire framework. Intermediary activity from the Sultan of Oman or Qatar could also signal shifts in the diplomatic situation.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.