The US and Iran clashed at the UN after Tehran was appointed to a nuclear non-proliferation role, and the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 7% yesterday.

Market reaction

The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market fell to 1% YES, down from 68% a week ago. With six days left, this market is pricing in no deal. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement by June 30 sits at 25% YES, down from 66% last week.

Why it matters

The term structure shows traders expect no near-term breakthroughs. The spread from April 30 (1%) to June 30 (22%) prices in no meaningful diplomatic progress until at least mid-year. The Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 is at 0.9%, showing deep skepticism about Iran’s willingness to compromise.

What to watch

With $7,699 in USDC traded on the nuclear deal market and $1,550 required to move the odds 5 percentage points, liquidity is thin and susceptible to swings. A 4-point spike earlier suggests any movement is speculative. The Iran enriched uranium market has $39,286 in USDC traded, though it remains vulnerable to larger orders.

The UN clash is a genuine setback. Tehran’s new role adds friction to already tense US-Iran relations. At 1¢, a YES share offers a theoretical 100x return, but a deal by April 30 would require a near-miraculous turnaround. Watch for statements from Supreme Leader Khamenei or President Trump that might signal a shift, and the next UN Security Council meeting for any change in tone.

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