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US and Iran have engaged in direct talks in Pakistan to end the six-week conflict. The ceasefire market for April 15 is locked at
The talks, hosted by Pakistan, involve high-level delegations from both countries. Ceasefire odds for April 15 through December 31 all sit at 100% YES, meaning traders treat formal cessation of hostilities as a done deal. April 15 is just five days away.
The permanent peace deal market doesn’t yet show odds. This likely reflects uncertainty about whether a comprehensive agreement can be reached quickly. US VP JD Vance and Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are both present, which signals serious intent from both sides, but negotiating a lasting deal is a different problem than agreeing to stop shooting.
There is currently no trading volume to speak of. The market is priced for peace, but traders aren’t making large commitments until more concrete developments materialize. Low volume also means less resistance to price moves if conditions change.
These direct talks could lead to a longer-term resolution beyond the immediate ceasefire. But without a signed deal, the risk of backsliding remains. With April 15 so close, the question is whether these talks produce anything binding.
Watch for Trump’s statements and any announcements from Pakistani mediators. A tweet from Trump calling the talks “productive” or a formal statement from either delegation would move the picture.
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