US and Iran near deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz without restrictions

CNN reports the US and Iran are closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 16.5% YES.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market sits at 16.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The WTI Crude Oil April 2026 market is at 0.4% YES, with traders pricing out a spike to $160. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market remains at 1.0% YES. With 6 days until resolution, the largest move was a minor 1-point spike early this morning.

Why it matters

The reported agreement focuses on economic access rather than nuclear concessions, which could de-escalate the current dual blockade. CNN is a tier-3 source here, but the shift toward economic framing suggests a different negotiation track than previous rounds.

What to watch

Actual USDC volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is $36,459 per day, and it takes $4,658 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning the order book is thick. The WTI Crude Oil market is much thinner at $506 actual USDC traded daily. At 16.5¢, a YES share on Strait of Hormuz traffic pays $1 if the market resolves positively, a potential 6x return if talks progress. Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or Iranian leadership confirming negotiations or an agreement, as any public confirmation could move these markets fast.

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