The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out another round of strikes aimed at weakening Iran’s capability to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the third series of U.S. retaliatory attacks against Iran amidst ongoing tensions. The strikes are part of a broader U.S. strategy to ensure freedom of navigation in the crucial waterway, which is vital for global oil trade. The current crisis has seen a breakdown in the ceasefire and an escalation in military actions following previous Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.

Key Takeaways

• The recent U.S. strikes appear to be consistent with efforts to degrade Iran’s capabilities to threaten shipping, suggesting a strategic move to protect commercial interests in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 13, with odds dropping from 53% to 7.6% YES.
• The market remains highly supportive of a YES outcome for potential Iranian attacks on July 12 and July 14, with odds at 98% and 98% respectively.

What to Watch

The evolving military engagements in the Strait of Hormuz will be critical to monitor, as they could further influence market expectations. Watch for any new announcements from CENTCOM regarding the effectiveness of these strikes or shifts in military strategy. Meanwhile, any signs of renewed diplomatic efforts or ceasefire agreements could alter the current trajectory, potentially influencing market expectations surrounding successful Iranian attacks.

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