US condemns Iran-aligned militias for attacks on US personnel in Iraq

US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau condemned Iran-aligned militias for attacking US personnel in Iraq. The market on US forces entering Iran by April 30 sits at 100.0% YES.

Market reaction

Both the April 30 and December 31 markets hold at 100% YES, unchanged over the past 24 hours. Traders are pricing US troop deployment inside Iran as a foregone conclusion, likely factoring in recent escalations and proxy actions amid a fragile ceasefire. There is no discrepancy between the short and long-term contracts; the term structure is flat.

Why it matters

Combined daily USDC volume across these markets is $93.97M, with a thick order book that would require significant capital to move prices. With both markets locked at 100% YES, any movement would signal a major new development.

Landau’s condemnation points to continued proxy escalations, but the market at its ceiling has no room for further upside. At 100¢, YES holders need operational confirmations or policy shifts to justify their position. The contrarian angle is watching for de-escalation signals or diplomatic engagement that could introduce volatility.

What to watch

Updates from CENTCOM or the Pentagon press secretary that redefine the military posture. Any sign of negotiation progress or a shift toward diplomatic channels could break the current market consensus.

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