Earn with Nexo
A US delegation led by Vice-President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner is in Islamabad for talks with Iran. The “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market sits at
Ceasefire odds have hit 100% across all sub-markets, with April 15 through December 31 all showing a perfect 100% YES. The term structure is flat, with no expected catalysts to shift odds before any of the deadlines.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume is $3,232,549, with the largest daily volume in the May 31 sub-market at $2,386,010. Market depth suggests it takes substantial capital to move the odds even slightly, a sign of strong consensus among traders.
The delegation’s composition (a sitting vice-president, the special envoy, and Kushner together) is unusual for what amounts to indirect talks with Iran. Traders are pricing in a formal ceasefire announcement as a near-certainty, and the 100% reading leaves no room for doubt about military re-escalation.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM, any shift in intermediary roles by Oman or Qatar, or new developments from the Iranian side. Concrete outcomes from these talks would reinforce current odds; a breakdown in discussions would introduce sharp volatility from a starting point that currently prices in zero risk.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.