US denies collaboration with Iran during potential regime change

The U.S. has denied it will collaborate with Iran during any regime change process, contradicting misleading reports circulating online. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago.

In the context of Operation Epic Fury, the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is static at 100% YES. The April 30 ceasefire market also holds at 100% YES, unchanged from levels reached after speculative trading around Trump’s ultimatum. The Iranian regime fall market dropped to 8.5% YES, reflecting skepticism about collapse without new developments. US forces entering Iran by April 30 remains at 99.8% YES, meaning traders treat military intervention as near-certain.

Trading volumes show where speculative interest is concentrated. The ceasefire markets spiked 24 points yesterday on $1,385,525 in actual USDC volume, a direct reaction to the latest escalations. The Iranian regime fall market is far less liquid at $93,869 traded, which suggests traders aren’t betting heavily on imminent collapse. The US forces market has institutional-grade depth: moving it 5 points would require $5,396,380.

The misrepresented U.S. collaboration narrative is noise. The Trump administration’s hardline stance and military threats show no shift toward diplomacy. A YES share on regime fall at 8¢ pays 12.5x, but that bet requires believing in significant internal upheaval within 83 days. Without concrete evidence of regime fracture, the risk-reward stays heavily skewed toward NO.

Watch for Pentagon announcements or Iranian leadership changes as the strongest signals for regime fall odds. Trump’s next move on April 8 is the key date; any deviation from the current escalation path could shift these markets fast.

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