US diplomats leave Pakistan, ceasefire expected to hold until April 21

All U.S. diplomatic officials have left Pakistan, but the ceasefire is expected to hold until April 21. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES.

The withdrawal of US diplomats from Karachi and Lahore has not moved the market. Both the April 15 and April 30 sub-markets are at 100% YES. Traders are treating the Pakistan unrest as separate from the ceasefire question. With only 5 days until April 15, the odds reflect near-total confidence the temporary halt will hold.

There is no trading volume in these markets right now, meaning nobody is actively betting against the ceasefire continuing. No significant price moves have occurred either, pointing to consensus that the ceasefire will last at least through the short term.

The departure of US diplomatic staff is worth noting, but it hasn’t changed the market’s read on ceasefire stability. Traders see minimal risk before April 21, though ongoing protests in Pakistan and potential threats from Iran keep the situation fluid.

Watch Vice President JD Vance’s negotiation outcomes in Islamabad and any shifts in rhetoric from the US or Iran. If Trump or any official signals a breakdown, these odds could move fast.

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