The U.S. has broadened its naval blockade, targeting vessels suspected of carrying contraband to Iran. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 31 now sits at 18% YES.

The blockade now covers more than 100 vessels, focusing on those potentially carrying weapons or sanctioned materials. Traders have reacted sharply: odds for traffic normalization by May 31 dropped from 24% yesterday to 18% today, a 6-point decline that prices in prolonged disruption.

The May 31 sub-market has seen the most movement. A 45-day resolution window paired with an expanding blockade makes a swift return to normal traffic unlikely. The odds reflect growing expectations of continued restrictions and possible further confrontations. Current pricing signals clear skepticism about near-term de-escalation.

On the trading side, the market’s face value shows no new trades, pointing to thin liquidity. That means any significant order could move the odds disproportionately. At 18%, a YES share priced at 18¢ pays $1 if normalcy returns by May 31, a potential 5.56x return. This is a high-risk, high-reward position that depends entirely on diplomatic shifts or unexpected de-escalation.

The expanded blockade points to a persistent and possibly escalating conflict rather than a temporary spike. Previous coverage showed odds declining after sanctions on Iran’s oil shipping network. The latest developments reinforce that bearish direction, suggesting the blockade’s impact represents a sustained strategic shift rather than short-term noise.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or Iranian officials, which could signal diplomatic movement in either direction.

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