US extends ceasefire with Iran, no new peace talks scheduled

The US has indefinitely extended its ceasefire with Iran, but no date has been set for new peace talks. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 have fallen to 16% YES, down from 18% yesterday.

Markets are bearish on any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Dates market for April 23 sits at 1.3% YES. The June 30 diplomatic meeting location market has ticked up to 6.5% YES, with traders pricing in a longer timeline before any qualifying meeting happens.

Combined 24-hour face value is $1,740,575, with $423,360 in actual USDC traded. It takes $28,110 to move the peace deal market 5 points, so small orders won’t shift the price. A 4-point spike occurred at 1:42 PM, driven by rumors of a potential interim agreement, but the lack of concrete progress quickly deflated it.

The indefinite ceasefire extension without a scheduled negotiation date points to a stalled diplomatic process. At 16¢, buying YES on an April 30 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 6.25x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a breakthrough happens this week.

Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A confirmation that talks are resuming or a significant policy shift could move these odds fast.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.