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The U.S. rescue operation inside Iran complicates ceasefire prospects. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago.
The ceasefire by April 7 market shows traders abandoning hope for peace soon. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. With Oman talks stalled and Trump’s ultimatum looming, traders doubt diplomatic progress. The April 30 ceasefire market is at 18% YES, falling from 24% in 24 hours.
Conversely, U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 surged, reaching 86% YES. That’s a 24-point leap, driven by the confirmed U.S. mission inside Iran. Traders see this as a strong signal of sustained military operations.
Ceasefire markets saw $430,773 in USDC traded over 24 hours. Moving prices by 5 points requires $12K to $40K, depending on the market. The largest single move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market. Meanwhile, the troop entry market reported $5,069,224 in USDC traded, showing solid liquidity. A hefty $85K is needed to shift odds 5 points, indicating deep trader conviction.
This U.S. mission suggests deeper conflict involvement, making a ceasefire unlikely soon. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves — a 100x return. But traders banking on peace within four days face long odds without breakthroughs in talks or shifts from Trump or the Sultan of Oman.
Watch for CENTCOM’s next briefing and any statements from Secretary of State Rubio. These could indicate whether the U.S. is intensifying military actions or open to negotiations.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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