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The US Air Force carried out a combat search and rescue mission in southern Iran for a downed F-15E. Despite US Central Command denying any aircraft loss, odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 65.5% YES, up from 61% yesterday.
Traders are reacting to the increased military activity. The April 30 market shows a 4.5-point rise in YES shares over 24 hours, suggesting expectations for ground troop confirmation soon. The December 31 market also increased to 75.5% YES, indicating belief in a longer-term US presence.
The market’s term structure shows a 10-point jump between April 30 and December 31, suggesting traders expect a significant event later this year. Volume at $1.6M daily USDC and $248K needed to move the price 5 points show strong interest and liquidity.
This event highlights ongoing air operations without confirmed losses, but escalation remains possible. At $0.66, a YES share pays $1 if US forces enter Iran by April 30 — a 1.5x return. Traders must believe there’s a strong chance of ground troop confirmation within 27 days.
Watch for Pentagon statements, especially from Hegseth or CENTCOM, indicating a shift to ground operations. Congressional actions on war powers could also impact the market.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES
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