The US House rejected a resolution to withdraw troops from Iran by a 213-214 vote. The market on the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 7.5% YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 market sits at 0.7% YES, down from 1% yesterday. Traders are pricing almost no chance of a formal declaration in the near term. The December 31 market is where the action is, with a 7-point gap over 245 days.
On the diplomatic side, the market for no US-Iran meetings by June 30 remains at 2.1% YES. Recent peace talks have failed, and traders doubt a diplomatic meeting is coming soon.
Why it matters
The House was one vote away from forcing a troop withdrawal. That single-vote margin means the political coalition for continued military engagement is thin. Any defection or shift in Congressional sentiment could flip the outcome in a future vote, which would directly affect the probability of further escalation or de-escalation with Iran.
What to watch
Combined 24h volume for the war declaration markets is $38,191 face value and $329 actual USDC traded. It takes $2,378 to shift the April 30 market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The diplomatic meeting market moves 5 points on just $408, making it vulnerable to a few large trades.
A YES share in the December market at 8¢ pays $1 if war is declared, a 12.5x return. That bet requires belief in further escalation or new legislative action toward a formal declaration. Watch for Congressional statements, renewed ceasefire negotiations, or military escalations that could move these markets quickly.
