The US House rejected a resolution to limit President Trump’s authority to wage war with Iran. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% a week ago.

The vote leaves Trump’s authority over military operations intact without requiring congressional approval. The December 31, 2026, market is at 7.5% YES. The April 30 market remains at 0.7% YES, unchanged from earlier levels, pointing to little expectation of near-term action.

The declaration of war market trades a combined $38,191 in face value over 24 hours, with $329 in actual USDC traded. The market is thin: $1,830 is enough to move the price by 5 points, meaning even a small capital inflow could shift odds noticeably.

The resolution’s failure means Trump retains unilateral control over military actions, which could raise the probability of further military engagement. But the absence of congressional support for a formal declaration keeps odds low. At 7.5%, a YES share costs 7.5¢ and pays $1 if war is declared, a 13.3x return.

Watch for congressional action around the War Powers Resolution deadline near May 1. Any moves toward formal authorization or rejection in Congress could move these odds sharply.

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