US inflation in March amid US-Iran tensions, impacting Bitcoin outlook

US inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026, driven by energy costs tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. On Polymarket, Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $100,000 by year-end is at 37.5% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

The inflation print, linked to geopolitical tensions, has raised concerns about Federal Reserve tightening. With inflation at 3.3%, the Fed may lean hawkish, weakening Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. The Bitcoin Price Targets market reflects this: the sub-market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 37.5% YES. Odds for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 are at 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Why it matters

Higher inflation and geopolitical instability have also increased the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April. Market sentiment points toward a risk-off environment where traders pull back from Bitcoin on fears of rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Liquidity is thin, with daily USDC volume relatively low, meaning large individual trades could still trigger outsized price moves.

This inflation spike complicates Bitcoin’s macro picture. A hawkish Fed would strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on Bitcoin. At current odds, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end costs 38¢ and pays $1, a potential 2.63x return. That bet requires believing either that geopolitical tensions ease or that the Fed pivots dovish before year-end.

What to watch

Federal Reserve statements and geopolitical developments. Jerome Powell’s next remarks on monetary policy could shift these odds quickly, particularly if he signals willingness to adjust the Fed’s current stance.

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