US intensifies military campaign against Iran, clears mines in Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. is intensifying its military and diplomatic campaign against Iran, putting pressure on nuclear talks while clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz. “Other countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15” sits at 9.2% YES, up from 5% yesterday.

The increase reflects concerns that U.S. actions might prompt other nations to join in. The April 30 market, priced at 21.5% YES, suggests traders see potential for escalation. With 18 days left, this sub-market has jumped 12 points over 15 days, pointing to expectations of a catalyst for intensified military involvement.

The “Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April” market has zero face value volume, and the odds are bearish. Ongoing U.S. military operations and stalled diplomatic talks don’t favor a quick agreement. The “U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027” market remains static, which fits with the read that while tensions are high, a full-scale invasion isn’t what traders are pricing in.

Traders should note the thin liquidity in the April 15 market, where $447 can move it 5 points. The April 30 market is thicker, needing $1,311 for the same move, implying stronger conviction. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike at 1:19 PM when the April 15 market jumped from 5% to 8%.

This campaign against Iran could spur other countries to act, but source tier is a consideration. At 9¢, a YES share for military action by April 15 pays $1 if resolved, a 11x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in imminent coalition strikes.

Watch for statements from Middle Eastern allies or NATO that could signal broader involvement. Any confirmation of strikes by regional powers would move these markets fast.

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