US, Iran agree to ceasefire as Strait of Hormuz set to reopen

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged political restraint alongside a two-week ceasefire to protect the peace process. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The April 15 ceasefire market surged to certainty following the announcement, with a 24-point spike recorded at 10:34 PM as traders digested both sides accepting the ceasefire. The April 30 and June 30 sub-markets have also reached 100% YES, indicating broad expectation that the ceasefire will hold across the proposed term structure.

Why it matters

Combined USDC volume in the ceasefire markets reached $5,188,952 over the last 24 hours, with the largest price move being the 24-point jump in the April 15 market. The ceasefire acceptance by both the US and Iran is conditioned on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and talks are scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad. At 100¢, the market prices a 1x return, treating the event as a foregone conclusion.

What to watch

The Islamabad talks on April 10 are the next inflection point. Any deviation from the planned schedule or a shift in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leadership could move market expectations. Operational language from CENTCOM and statements from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar will also matter for assessing whether the ceasefire holds beyond its initial term.

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