US-Iran ceasefire announced, traders expect peace through June

The US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 7-8, 2026, has pushed the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market to 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago. The ceasefire was brokered with Pakistan’s mediation and pauses military actions in the region.

Traders have moved other sub-markets, including April 30 and June 30, to 100.0% YES. The announcement effectively resolved these markets. The largest single move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM. Consistent 100% odds across extended timelines show traders expect the ceasefire to hold through at least June.

Trading volume hit $5,188,952 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. The 24-point spike was the largest single move and drove much of that activity. The face-value volume figure would suggest higher numbers, but the actual USDC traded gives a more accurate measure of market engagement.

At 100¢, a YES share now offers no further payout opportunity. If the ceasefire holds, it removes the immediate risk of further military escalation, which is what traders had been pricing in. The next scheduled event is planned negotiations in Islamabad on April 10, which could either solidify or complicate the current ceasefire.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM, progress at the Islamabad negotiations, and any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leadership. These will determine whether the ceasefire holds past the initial agreement.

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