Earn with Nexo
The US-Iran ceasefire has locked in at 100% YES across all ceasefire-related markets on Polymarket, following President Trump’s announcement of a truce. The April 15 market jumped from 12% to 100% in a single day.
This ceasefire agreement moved odds across every timeline, not just April 15. The April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 sub-markets all price at 100% YES. The largest single move was a 24-point spike in minutes on the April 15 market, as traders rapidly priced in the ceasefire’s validity.
## Market reaction
Daily trading volume on the April 15 market hit $1,385,525 in USDC. The 24-point spike from 67% to 90% shows that even with that level of liquidity, single large orders can move odds substantially. The term structure is now flat, with all deadlines priced identically at 100%, meaning traders see no distinction between near-term and year-end timelines.
## Why it matters
With odds at 100%, there is no remaining upside for YES positions. The action now shifts to ancillary markets. US forces entering Iran and Iranian regime fall markets could see movement as traders reprice their broader geopolitical bets in light of the ceasefire.
## What to watch
The upcoming negotiations in Pakistan are the next catalyst. If talks falter or Israeli operations intensify, the ceasefire’s durability gets tested. Specific indicators: any changes in CENTCOM’s posture, Iran’s compliance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected moves by regional proxies like Hezbollah.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.