US-Iran ceasefire expected by April 15 despite stalled nuclear talks

The US has made little progress in Iran after weeks of conflict, with Iran’s nuclear program largely unaffected. A US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

The markets point to a formal ceasefire announcement despite the lack of progress on the ground. The April 30 market also sits at 100% YES, meaning traders expect the temporary ceasefire to hold. The term structure shows no significant jumps, which points to confidence in ongoing negotiations. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 11.5% YES, as Iran’s control remains strong.

Trading volume in the ceasefire markets hit $3,232,549 in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. The April 15 market is the most active, with traders positioning around the possibility of a formal diplomatic announcement. The Iranian regime fall market shows limited movement by comparison: $36,383 in actual USDC traded and a $22,171 order book depth needed to move the odds by 5 points.

For traders, the lack of progress on Iran’s nuclear situation implies the regime retains control, which lowers the probability of a regime fall by June. Buying YES at 11¢ offers a potential 8.7x return, but the odds are slim unless there’s a dramatic shift like high-profile defections or leadership changes.

Watch the Islamabad negotiations and any softening rhetoric from US or Iranian officials. A confirmed back-channel meeting or intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar could solidify a ceasefire, making April 15 a critical date for this market.

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