US-Iran ceasefire fails to reopen Strait of Hormuz, oil prices climb

The US-Iran ceasefire has not led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. The market for a ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES, a figure that looks disconnected from conditions on the ground.

Market reaction

The April 15 ceasefire market moved to 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago. The April 30 and May 31 markets reflect the same direction, even as tensions have escalated.

Why it matters

The order book tells a different story than the headline odds. It would take only $800 to move the April 15 market by 5 percentage points, which means the 100% figure is thin and vulnerable to any larger trade. The biggest price move in the last 24 hours was an 82-point jump, showing how little volume it takes to swing this market. Given ongoing military actions and a diplomatic stalemate, the near-certainty priced in looks detached from reality. If a ceasefire does occur by April 15, a YES share pays 100¢, yielding no return. A contrarian approach would be to watch for bearish signals (new strikes, rejected proposals) and consider shorting the market if possible.

What to watch

Trump, CENTCOM, and intermediaries from Oman and Qatar are the actors most likely to shift these odds. Any diplomatic breakthrough or change in military posture would directly affect pricing across all three ceasefire contracts.

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