US-Iran ceasefire impacts market on regime change by June 30

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 has moved the market on Iranian regime change by June 30, with odds now at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The June 30 market moved 3.5 points in 24 hours. The uptick suggests traders are reassessing the probability of regime change given the temporary reprieve. The market has $408,385 in face value and $36,383 in daily USDC volume, with $22,171 required to move the price 5 points.

Why it matters

The ceasefire reduces the immediate risk of military escalation but leaves core disputes unresolved. Iran’s nuclear program and its regional proxy network remain points of contention. The truce is two weeks long, and ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon suggest any cooling could be brief. That said, the ceasefire itself signals the regime can negotiate, which works against the thesis of near-term collapse.

What to watch

At 11.5% YES, buying YES shares pays 8.7x if the regime falls by June 30. For that bet to hit, you’d need significant internal destabilization within 82 days: major protests, military defections, or unexpected leadership changes. Track Mojtaba Khamenei’s public presence and any moves by the Assembly of Experts. Signs of regime fracture or decisive US action would move these odds fast.

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