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Iran’s nuclear threat is shaking Middle East stability. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 now sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Traders are nervous, with the April 30 ceasefire market dropping to 17.5% from 24% in just 24 hours. The May 31 market fell 2 points to 36.5% YES. Iran’s actions are hurting chances for peace. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, with 12 days until resolution. The spread between April 30 and May 31 shows a 19-point jump, hinting at expected developments.
In the Iranian regime fall market, odds have slightly increased. Falling by June 30 is at 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday but below last week’s 20%. The regime fall market trades $439,688/day face value, but only $59,602 in actual USDC, indicating a thin market easily swayed by large bets. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 7:21 PM.
The US-Iran ceasefire markets are trading significant face volumes, but actual USDC reveals the true picture. It takes $12,352 to move the April 7 market 5 points, showing a thin order book. Meanwhile, $19,925 is needed to move the April 30 market, suggesting stronger trader conviction there.
Despite social media noise, the destabilization risk is real. At 1¢, a YES share on the April 7 ceasefire market pays $1 if it resolves — a 100x return if a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough occurs. For that bet to make sense, rapid de-escalation within four days is necessary. Expect these markets to stay bearish unless significant diplomatic shifts happen.
Watch for any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar or potential changes in US rhetoric. Hegseth’s next Pentagon briefing could significantly influence these markets.
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