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US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian sites, and Iran threatened a UAE data center. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
This escalation has impacted prediction markets. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market dropped to 8.5% YES from 18% in 24 hours. The April 30 market fell to 23.5% from 40%. Traders expect a significant event in May, with a 22-point increase in the spread between April 30 and May 31.
Ceasefire markets saw $535,930 in USDC traded over the past day. The largest move was a 4-point drop in the May 31 market at 9:36 AM. It takes $25,832 to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating a thick order book for near-term resolutions.
The odds of a ceasefire are low, with a YES payout at 2¢ for April 7, reflecting a 50x return. Traders don’t expect a ceasefire soon. A bet here requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or moves from Oman or Qatar. Briefings from Hegseth or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Rubio could also affect these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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