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The US-Iran conflict over control of dollar transactions in global energy trade is intensifying. Odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Sub-market odds show skepticism about a ceasefire soon. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market has fallen to 17.5% YES from 24% just a day ago. The most significant change is between April 30 and May 31, where odds rose 19 points, indicating traders expect potential developments in late May. The May 31 market is now at 36.5% YES, down from 46% yesterday.
Market volumes indicate high interest and volatility. The April 7 sub-market saw $22,948 in USDC traded, against a $1,439,535 face value. It takes $12,352 to move this market five points, showing it’s sensitive to large trades. The April 15 market, more stable, requires $40,093 to move five points, indicating better liquidity.
Social media sources, rated a 3, suggest volatility without solid confirmation. Traders respond to escalation signals rather than confirmed actions. With a YES share at 1.1¢ for April 7, a ceasefire would yield a 90x return, but the lack of diplomatic progress and ongoing military actions make it a risky bet.
Watch for any intermediary action from Oman or Qatar or changes in rhetoric from US officials like Trump or Rubio. These could signal potential de-escalation.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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