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The ongoing US-Iran conflict and oil price surge above $112 per barrel have pushed down the likelihood of the Fed executing a Cut-Pause-Pause sequence in their upcoming meetings, with the market reflecting high inflationary pressures.
Market reaction
Increased oil prices and geopolitical tensions are steering traders away from expecting rate cuts. The current market environment makes a Cut-Pause-Pause pattern less probable. Volume in the last 24 hours sits at zero face value, but the direction is clear: inflation is the central concern.
Why it matters
The conflict’s impact extends to the Solana price market, where the probability of Solana hitting $150 by April 30 has dropped. Risk-off sentiment, compounded by the threat of further military actions, works against risk assets like Solana reaching that price level.
For traders, this looks like a genuine shift rather than noise. The Fed’s rate decision will likely stay hawkish unless inflationary pressures ease significantly. With the market pricing higher inflation risk, buying YES on a Cut-Pause-Pause scenario is a long shot.
What to watch
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is the next key date. Hawkish statements or a hold on cuts would reinforce the current market stance against rate reductions. Oil prices and geopolitical developments could also reshape inflation expectations quickly.
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